When building the 2024 US model, one of the most important factors to consider was that when sudden changes happen, it is important to know what is going on in individual states without having to poll each state individually. On Sunday, when President Joe Biden withdrew from the Presidential race, it fundamentally changed the race. The Democratic party (and the Republican party) have spent hundreds of millions of dollars, over many years, defining Joe Biden to the population of America. Then suddenly, all of that spending became near worthless, as Biden confirmed he would not be on the ballot in November. As Biden had been struggling in the polling since the Presidential Debate, the decision was not unexpected, so in our most recent National poll, taken after the RNC, FAU/Mainstreet asked people how they would vote if Harris were to replace Biden on the ballot. The reason for this was to make a comparison, not just on the topline, but with different demographic groups. Additionally, due to our US model, we are able to project those differences onto each state. The results are shown below:
It can clearly be seen that Harris immediately does better in the “Sun Belt” A group of states in the South and South West which Biden has been struggling in since winning the Presidential election in 2020. Biden even had issues in 2020 in some parts of those states, particularly the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and in South Florida, where Latino voters broke against the Democratic party. With our data, Harris appears to be reversing this trend. As well, you can see substantial gains in Southern US states with high Black populations, such as Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Although Mississippi and Alabama are not competitive it closes the gap in the popular vote. The FAU/Mainstreet model also projects down to the county level, so let’s see that same difference on the County/Congressional District level:
From this view, the gains in areas with large Black populations is even more apparent, as counties Democrats usually win in the South due to their larger Black populations are performing much better for Harris than others in the South. Additionally, Harris does much better in the Rio Grande Valley and South Florida, showing that she has renewed strength with Latino voters. However, it is important to note where the gains are not as large, particularly in the North and Midwest and in rural areas. While Harris is doing better in the cities, at this point, gains in more rural and white areas are smaller. While this poll was taken fully before Biden withdrew from the race, this will be an important area to watch in upcoming polling, as Harris will need to gain ground in those areas as well to win the election.
This is particularly important, as much had been written about how the new electoral landscape was favouring Democrats in a close National environment. As far back as 2000 it has been true that Democrats not only need to win the popular vote, but win the popular vote by several percentage points to win the Presidential election. The reason for this is voter inefficiency, as Democrats win a percentage of non-white voters, but those populations are more present in non-swing states, and Republicans, doing stronger with the demographic groups overrepresented in the swing states, are able to more easily win the Electoral College. This was true in 2020 as well, as, despite Biden winning the popular vote by 4.5%, he narrowly won the electoral college by less than 45,000 votes across Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia. However, polling in 2024 showed Biden doing better in the key Midwestern swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania comparatively to his National standing, and much better than the Sun Belt swing states with higher non-white populations. This lead to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remaining within the margin of error, while North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada fell much further back for Biden, creating a narrow path for Biden to win the Electoral College with a smaller popular vote win than in 2020.
Harris’s overperformance compared to Biden appears to already begin erasing this 2024 trend, but there is a danger in reversing it. Biden was already losing the election, and Harris is as well according to this model. While it seems likely that Harris will make gains in the coming days, if she does not make proportionally more gains with White voters, she risks a 2020 in reverse scenario, where she closes the Biden 2024 gap in the Sun Belt states (Georgia, Nevada, Arizona) but fails to make up proportional ground in the Rust Belt states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania). In that case her coalition could turn into a slightly smaller version of the Biden 2020 coalition, and instead of narrow wins in all of those above states they all become narrow loses.
