As the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies, a new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals the shifting tides of politics in Florida, highlighting significant gender, age and racial divides among likely voters.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris among likely Florida voters, with 50% supporting Trump and 47% backing Harris. This close margin suggests Florida’s potential swing state status may return in the upcoming election.
“The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida.”
Female voters in Florida favor Harris by 53%, while Trump garners 43%. Among male voters, Trump leads with 56% compared to Harris’ at 39%. Harris leads among voters aged 18-49 with 50%, while Trump is favored by those aged 50 and over with 53%. Harris receives strong support from Black voters at 77%, while Trump captures 17%. The Hispanic vote is evenly split at 49% for both candidates.
Since the PolCom Lab/Mainstreet USA poll of Florida voters in April, Harris has reduced the gap between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates among voters in Florida from an 8% deficit to just 3%. In April, U.S. President Joe Biden trailed Trump by 8% among likely voters. This trend offers the Democratic Party hope of catching up with Trump in the remaining campaign period. However, Trump’s support has remained stable since April, indicating that Harris’ gains are primarily from strengthening support within traditional Democratic bases, such as women, Black voters, younger voters, and Democratic Party loyalists.
“Kamala Harris restores the traditional base of the Democratic Party, which includes women, minorities, younger voters, and Democratic Party identifiers,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU. “While Donald Trump maintains his own established base.”
Early returns in Florida suggest that voters liked the choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz for possible U.S. vice president. Among poll respondents, 44% approve with 34% having a more negative view. About one-quarter of voters do not have a specific opinion on Walz. This suggests he has room to improve his name recognition among voters.
“So far, Tim Walz has been a help to Harris, but it’s early and many voters are still learning about the Minnesota governor,” said Wagner.
Abortion amendment: 56% of voters support an amendment ensuring no law shall prohibit abortion before viability, with the highest support from Hispanics at 66%. For males, 54% were in support of the abortion amendment compared to 59% of women, and 62% of 18- to 49-year-olds are in support. For Democrats, 80% are in support compared to 35% of Republicans, while 59% of Independents are in support.
Marijuana legalization: 56% of all voters support legalization with younger voters (18-49)
showing the highest support at 69%, while only 47% of voters over 50 are in support of the amendment. For males and females, 56% support the amendment, while 74% of Democrats are in support compared to 37% of Republicans and 63% of Independents. For blacks, 57.9% are in support, and both white college-educated and white non-college-educated voters support the proposed amendment at roughly 56%. Hispanics were the largest group in opposition with 35.4% saying they would not support Amendment 3.
“These results reflect a growing awareness of the constitutional amendments. In April, FAU polled on both initiatives and at that time these measures had 49% approval, which shows a gain of 7% over the last four months,” said Luzmarina Garcia Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “For these ballot initiatives to become a constitutional amendment in Florida’s Constitution, 60% of voters need to agree since the rules for a constitutional amendment were changed by the Florida legislature in 2006.”
Among all voters, 23% of respondents are not sure how they will vote for the abortion amendment, while 15% are unsure how they will vote with the marijuana amendment.
“There is some evidence of greater turnout in elections when people can vote on more emotionally charged issues, including same-sex marriage and more recently abortion. However, this has primarily been in midterm elections when there is no election for president. With this being a presidential year, many of the people who would turn out to vote on one of these ballot initiatives would probably turnout anyway to vote for a president,” Garcia said. “These voters that don’t know how they would vote if faced with the ballot initiative could go either way come November.”
U.S. Senate race: Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leads Democratic candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 47% to 43% among likely voters.
“While Scott leads, there is increasing evidence that this race could be competitive in November,” Wagner said.
Heat and water breaks: An overwhelming majority of Florida voters, 85%, agree that cities and counties should have the authority to mandate heat and water breaks for outdoor workers. This sentiment is particularly strong among women, with 88% in favor, compared to 79% of men. Support is more pronounced among Democrats, with 95% backing the measure compared to 75% of Republicans.
“Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill that prohibited Florida municipalities from requiring heat and water breaks for outdoor workers, preempting a recently enacted regulation in Miami-Dade County,” said Aaron Veenstra, Ph.D., associate professor of journalism at FAU. “The state’s preemption bill received little coverage at the time it was passed and signed, which may partially explain how something so unpopular with Florida voters across the political spectrum became law. Federal regulators are now looking at requiring heat and water breaks across the country, which has brought attention to the issue at the national level.”
High cost of living and school timing opinions: 38% of voters attribute the high cost of living to the federal government, while 29% blame the state government. As schools reopen, 41% of voters believe that the school start time is appropriate, though 31% wish school started later.
News consumption: 49% of voters listen to news radio at least four days a week, with older voters more likely to tune in daily.
“Talk radio remains a significant source of information for many voters, especially those with early morning and late afternoon commutes,” said Veenstra. “Its format often combines reporting and commentary, offering listeners both a chance to find out about issues and to find out how people like them think about issues. Local radio especially contributes to the sense of what people around us are thinking and thinking about, and often flies under the radar compared with newspapers, TV, and social media.”
The poll was conducted from Aug. 10 to 11, sampling 1,055 registered Florida voters aged 18 and older. The survey was administered in both Spanish and English using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and an online panel, ensuring a representative sample of the state’s voting population. While a specific margin of error cannot be assigned due to the online component, a poll of this size typically has a margin of error of +/- 3% at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins for subsamples. This survey provides a snapshot of the Florida voting patterns at this point in time. For full methodologies, visit www.faupolling.com/about/. For the poll’s full report, visit www.faupolling.com/polls/.
