A new poll from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and Mainstreet Research USA reveals significant shifts in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, underscoring deep gender and racial divides among voters across the nation. Watch the video analysis of this report at faupolling.com.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former U.S. President Donald Trump nationally, with 47% of voters supporting her compared to Trump’s 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%. She has gained strong support among women, with 53% backing her, while 45% of men favor her. Trump’s base remains predominantly male, with 47% support from men, compared to 41% from women.
Harris also holds substantial advantages among Black voters (73%), Hispanic voters (51%), and white college-educated voters (57%). Trump, however, continues to command strong support among white voters without a college degree, with 59% favoring him.
“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”
Harris has also made significant inroads among Independent voters, now capturing 48% of their support, compared to Trump’s 35%. This marks a notable shift from July when Independents were more evenly split, with 45% backing Harris and 43% supporting Trump.
“Trump is losing support from Independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU. “If this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.”
The poll shows that 46% of respondents would vote for the Democratic Party candidate in their district, compared to 44% for the Republican Party candidate.
“The generic ballot illustrates just how closely divided the nation continues to be,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “It suggests that the current default is for close and tightly contested elections.”
Election Anxiety: Mixed Emotions Ahead of 2024
The poll reveals a stark emotional divide as the election approaches, with negative emotions slightly outweighing positive ones by 44% to 41%. This emotional split becomes more pronounced when viewed through the lens of voting intentions:
Notably, 27% of Democrats reported feeling excited about the election, while 32% of Republicans expressed fear.
“While Democrats seem energized by the Harris-Walz ticket, there’s a significant undercurrent of anxiety across the electorate,” said Carol Bishop Mills, Ph.D., professor of communication and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “These findings highlight the intense political polarization and uncertainty surrounding this election.”
On the political spectrum, Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, representing the Democratic ticket, are generally perceived as left-leaning. Harris is viewed as more strongly on the far left (37%), compared to Walz (28%). However, Walz is seen as more moderate, with 18% of voters placing him in the center, compared to fewer voters unsure of Harris’ position. On the Republican side, Trump and Vance are viewed as right-leaning, with Trump categorized as far right by 37% of voters and Vance by 30%. Trump’s position is highly polarized, with voters seeing him as either far right or far left, while Vance has a higher percentage of voters uncertain about his placement. These perceptions highlight the ideological divide between the two tickets.
“Although both Trump and Harris are similarly seen as conservative and liberal, respectively, Tim Walz is viewed by voters as a more moderate candidate,” Wagner said. “That may change, but it does give the Democrats an opportunity to appeal to the center.”
The survey found that 46% of Americans are satisfied with how democracy works in the U.S., while 38% are dissatisfied. However, the gap widens along party lines: 64% of Democrats express satisfaction compared to just 33% of Republicans.
Despite these differences, most Americans still believe in democratic principles. A strong 74% agree that democracy is the best system of government. This view is more common among older voters (81% of those 50 and up) and Democrats (85%) than younger voters (65% of those under 50) and Republicans (65%).
“The partisan and age splits on America’s democratic quality are concerning,” Kim said. “A substantial portion of voters (38%) are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, which could have negative implications for the future of our democracy.”
A significant portion of respondents rely on cable news (35%) and national network TV (24%) for political information. However, a notable shift in voter consumption patterns is emerging, with social media and podcasts becoming increasingly popular, especially among younger voters (20% for ages 18-49 vs. 7% for those 50+).
“This trend underscores the growing impact of social media influencers on public opinion,” said Robert E. Gutsche, Jr., Ph.D., associate professor in FAU’s School of Communication and Multimedia Studies. “With younger voters relying more on social media, the campaigns will have to reach them there.”
