The latest polls from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab ( PolCom Lab ) and MainStreet Research reveal a highly competitive landscape in the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with both the presidential and U.S. Senate races showing narrow Democratic leads. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Senate candidates hold slight edges, but with numbers within the margin of error, these races could swing either way in the final stretch.
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads former U.S. President Donald Trump by two points among likely voters, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%, while 1% choose another candidate, and 2% remain undecided. Harris holds a six-point advantage among women (51% to 45%), while Trump has a slight edge with men, leading 50% to 48%.
Harris also has a small lead among voters aged 18-49 at 49% to 45%, while the race is extremely close among those 50 and older, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%.
The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania shows Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey with a five-point lead over Republican David McCormick, 49% to 44%, with 1% choosing another candidate and 6% undecided. Casey performs well among women, who favor him 51% to 40%, while he and McCormick are tied among men at 48%. Casey leads significantly among Black voters (74% to 4%) and white college graduates (56% to 42%), while McCormick leads among white non-college voters (54% to 40%).
“Pennsylvania’s gender and education divides are significant, reflecting the challenges candidates have faced in building broad coalitions,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU.
In Wisconsin, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, with Harris at 49% and Trump just behind at 48%, with 2% undecided. Harris leads among women by a significant margin, 54% to 43%, but Trump maintains an advantage among men, 53% to 43%. Harris also holds a strong lead among white college graduates (58% to 39%), while Trump leads among white non-college voters (55% to 42%).
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tammy Baldwin has a narrow two-point lead over Republican Eric Hovde, (47% to 45%). Baldwin performs better with those aged 50 and older, leading 51% to 47%, while Hovde has a slight edge among 18–49-year-olds, 43% to 42%.
“Our data show party loyalty remains a powerful force, but with margins this close, split-ticket voting could be pivotal,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab.
In Michigan, Harris holds a narrow advantage over Trump at 49% to 47%, with 2% choosing another candidate and 3% undecided. Harris leads with white college graduates (51% to 45%), while Trump dominates among white non-college voters (55% to 41%). The U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Elissa Slotkin with a lead over Republican Mike Rogers, 47% to 43%, with 1% choosing another candidate and a large 9% undecided. Slotkin is favored among women (49% to 39%) and white college graduates (52% to 44%), while Rogers leads among white non-college voters (44% to 40%).
Across these battleground states, party loyalty is a strong driver, with most voters intending to vote straight-ticket:
The FAU poll highlights the potential impact of split voting in these closely watched states, where undecided voters and ticket-splitting independents could ultimately determine the election outcomes.
